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Weak-form market efficiency and calendar anomalies for Eastern Europe Equity Markets

机译:东欧股票市场的弱势市场效率和日历异常

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摘要

In this article we test the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) equity markets for the period 1999-2009. To test weak-form efficiency in the markets, this study uses autocorrelation analysis runs test and variance ratio test. We find that stock markets of the CEE do not follow a random walk process. This is an important finding for the CEE markets as an informed investor can identify mispriced assets in the markets by studying the past prices in these markets. We also test the presence of daily anomalies for the same group of stock markets using a basic model and a more advanced Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Mean (GARCH-M) model. Results indicate that day-of-the-week effect is not evident in most markets except for some. Overall results indicate that some of these markets are not weak and an efficient and informed investor can make abnormal profits by studying the past prices of the assets in these markets.
机译:在本文中,我们测试了1999-2009年期间中欧和东欧(CEE)股票市场有效市场假设的弱形式。为了测试市场中的弱形式效率,本研究使用自相关分析运行检验和方差比检验。我们发现中东欧的股票市场没有遵循随机游走过程。对于中东欧市场而言,这是一个重要发现,因为知情的投资者可以通过研究这些市场的过去价格来确定市场中定价错误的资产。我们还使用基本模型和更高级的广义均值自回归条件异方差(GARCH-M)模型测试同一组股票市场的每日异常情况。结果表明,除某些市场外,在大多数市场中周日效应并不明显。总体结果表明,其中一些市场并不疲软,有能力的,有见识的投资者可以通过研究这些市场过去的资产价格来赚取超额利润。

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